Archive for October, 2008


Let’s Trade Stocks Knowing How Many Are Actually Out There

This post is in follow up to a comment on a previous post about Issued Shares

 

In the comment Thierry wrote:

thank you for your website , i like to learn more
my question is : sometimes , looking at a stock in yahoo finance , i notice that they show institutions owing 110% or 120%
can you explain this ?????
how is it possible to own more than 100 %
and what is it ???? can you explain more about the float ????
i am confused and lost

Thank you Thierry for reading the site and taking the time to question, let’s see what we can do to answer.

Authorized Stock

The authorized stock is where it all begins.  When a corporation is formed the board of directors votes the number of stocks that will exist representing ownership in the corporation.  We’ll start Thierry’s Super Awesome Company (TSAC) and decide to authorize 1000 shares.  Thus the authorized stock is 1000.

Restricted Stock

Now you decide to give the high mucky mucks of your company 300 of these shares.  This is one example of the restricted stock.  Restricted stock can’t be traded on the open market but is subject to ruling by the SEC.  Insider ownership and affiliated ownership are the shares generally under these restrictions.  Restricted stock is also called letter stock or section 1244 stock named after the SEC regulation governing them.

In this example Inside Ownership would be 300 restricted shares / 1000 authorized shares or 30% or the insiders have 30% of the vote of the whole vote.

The Float

Now it’s every young corporation’s dream time – the initial public offering (IPO)!  Being conservative you don’t want the company to risk hostile takeovers so you and the board decide to maintain the majority of shares in the treasury – or 501 of the authorized shares.  Since the insiders own 300 shares, this leaves 199 shares for the open market.  These 199 shares are known as the float.  The float consist of the shares that you and I commonly get to trade.

Outstanding Shares

The outstanding shares are simply the float and the restricted stock added together, or the shares outside of the corporations direct control.  In our example TSAC’s outstanding shares is 300 (restricted stock) + 199 (float) = 499 outstanding shares.

Learning These Stock Classifications Can Help With The Bigger Picture

Alright, let’s try to put this all together.

Authorized Stock (1000), Restricted Stock (300), Float (199)

Thierry’s Super Awesome Company decides at a quarterly meeting to offer 100 shares in stock options to some of its executives (which we’ll say they will exercise) and buy back 50 shares.  Now the restricted stock changes to 400 shares (300 + 100), the float changes to 149 shares (199 – 50), the outstanding shares changes to 549 shares (499 + 100 – 50), and the shares in the treasury changes to 451 (501 – 100 + 50).  How does this change your view of the company as an investor?  You may like the increase in insider ownership, or dislike the fact that the corporation no longer owns the majority of the shares in the treasury, or you may not like that there is less shares on the float which could increase volatility, or you may not like the fact that there is 10% more outstanding shares spreading the dividend returns.  Share allocation can affect a lot of things and you need to digest how it fits in your trading or investing strategies.

All That to Answer Your Question

How is it that insider’s can hold more than 100% of the shares?  There are multiple answers to this question, hopefully one of them fits the situation you are asking about right now. 

  1. Check which shares the data is talking about.  In our example Insiders own 30% of shares by authorized shares (300/1000); 60.1% of outstanding shares (300/499); or 150.8% of the float (300 / 199).  I’ve seen all these different divisions used in reporting, be careful especially in an analysis of an investment with what the author’s bias may be when talking about percentages.
  2. Short Selling- Assume Company XYZ owns all of TSAC’s restricted stock (300 shares).  However, Joe Bear shorts 200 shares.  When someone shorts a stock the shares are actually sold from someone else’s shares to another person with a promise to buy them back at a later date (hopefully at a lower price.)  So Joe sold 200 of XYZ’s shares to company ABC.  Reporting time comes around and XYZ shows owning 300 shares still while ABC now reports 100 shares.  In reality though the outstanding shares hasn’t changed (499) but in this case insider ownership would show 100.2% of the outstanding shares (500 / 499 ).  If you see insider ownership over 100% you also may wish to check the short selling information.
  3. Reporting Error - From my understanding there is approximately a 4 week delay on reporting for insider ownership.  This may lead to the potential of one company reporting just before selling a large portion of shares and another company reporting just after buying these restricted shares.  If XYZ sells 250 shares after reporting; then ABC buys them before they report the final data may show restricted shares (300 + 250) / Outstanding Shares (499) = 110.2%

Well I hope this helps clear up some confusion on different types of market shares.  Keep commenting – I’ll try to keep the post coming.

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Stock Price Gap

Definition of a Gap

A gap is a break between two prices of a stock.  This often occurs after a major news event, earnings announcement, or analyst upgrade/downgrade.  There will literally be a blank space in the chart where there was a price jump.

A Gap By Any Other Name Would Be as Sweet

Gaps go by many different names depending on variances in how they are caused or how the price or indicators react after the gap.  Here are a few.

Common Gap – A common gap is usually caused my normal market forces often breaking up the linear change in the stock price.

Breakaway Gap - A breakaway gap is followed by a strong increase in volume.

Exhaustive Gap – Sort of the opposite of a breakaway gap. This gap is followed by a lower demand for the stock however, it may also have increasing volume.

Run-away Gap – This gap often occurs in line with a price movement with volume similar to current trends.

Can I Make Money With Gaps?

In the TA world gaps are a very useful indicator. It is commonly believed that all gaps get “filled” or the price will return to fill in the prices that were jumped over. Also the gaps we previously talked about help determine future price movement. A breakaway gap is considered the start of a trending price movement in the direction of the gap; the runaway gap is considered a strong sign that the trend will continue; and the exhaustive gap indicates a reversal in the trend.

I personally like to watch for gap movement indications that are in line with my fundamental beliefs on a stock before I buy in.

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You're Paying for Share Dilution

 

Learn to Watch the Money in all its Forms

Share Dilution

Issued shares are the number of shares held by all the shareholders, regardless if they are individual investors, institutional shareholders, or insiders.  Often a corporation will issue more shares to raise capital.  Think about what this does to the worth of your shares.  You own 1% of all the shares of company xyz.  Then the corporation decides to issue 5% more shares to insiders for compensation.  When they do this they spread the wealth over 5% more shares.  You now own 0.95% of the company.  When corporations do this and you don’t agree with their reasoning they are taking your equity away.  This can become a dangerous proposition to your nest egg.  Stocks may plod along for awhile but eventually the dilution will be noticed and your money may leave you.

Share dilution can be good if you feel the stock price is temporarily overpriced.  Then the company is raising capital at what you feel is a good deal.  Though, I feel if you feel the company is overpriced don’t wait for dilution just sell some or all of your shares.

Stock Buyback

Stock buyback is on the other side of the coin from share dilution.  A company may purchase back stock if it feels the stock price is too low or wants to put to work some of its idle cash.  This is like a secret dividend!  How so?  If you own 1% of a company and they buyback 5% of the issued shares you will now own 1.052% of the company.  If the dividend was set a $1,000,000 you would of recieved $10,000 before, but after the buyback you’ll receive $10,520.  Share buyback can be good.  Owning stock in companies that consistently do stock buybacks can be really good over the long term.

So remember, if you’re investing in a stock for a long term, keep an eye on those issued shares.  Some companies might be diluting your value one stock issuing at a time.

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What to Do With Your New Found Wealth?

Isn’t it funny that when the market is down everyone is so sad, but when it pops 11% in one day they are ecstatic.  Unless you were planning on retiring tomorrow the market is likely to gyrate some more, and I’m still upset that I didn’t get some more money in the market while it was way down.  For those who have 10, 15, or 20+ years to retirement you need to change your paradigm.  If you can recognize these deep draw downs as buying opportunities you can truly pad your nest egg in the long run.

In this hypersensitive market I find myself tempted to try to guess the market.  I want to pull my money out of stocks after such a quick run up, let them slide back down, and buy back in.  However, I want to do this on the back of working a full time job, caring for my Arabian horses, and my 200 mile a day commute.  I know I don’t have the time to properly digest this market to help myself in any way other than luck.

If this sounds like you, I think this is a good chance for us together to take a deep breath and review our strategies and our goals.

The Goal

I want to have $100,000 per year in income from my stocks within 30 years.

The Understanding

$100,000 inflation adjusted at 3% per year to the year 2038 is $242,726 <sigh>

The Self Reflection

I know when I retire I don’t want to want to stress about my pay anymore and since I plan on living to 120 I will only pull 4% per year from my nest egg.  Why 4%?  According to National Savings Rate Guidelines for Individualsby Roger Ibbotson, Ph.D.; James Xiong, Ph.D., CFA; Robert P. Kreitler, CFP®; Charles F. Kreitler; and Peng Chen, Ph.D., CFA this is the discounted rate assumed by annuities to pay a given amount for the rest of a person’s life.  I’m fairly sure this people know what to assume to make their profit.

$242,726 / 0.04 =  $6,068,156 <sigh again>

The Plan

The goal is to return 15% per year.  The easiest way to determine the the monthly payment required at any annual return is to use the handy dandy PMT function in Excel:

Use the PMT Fuction To Determine The Required Monthly Investment

Use the PMT Fuction To Determine The Required Monthly Investment

So now I remember that I just need to keep coming up with my $880 per month and find solid investments to earn my 15% per year.  Makes these crazy days seem not so critical.

I’ll let you know how I’m doing over time.  If I get to wild please help remind me of my goal.

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