Archive for November, 2008


What’s A MACD?

For those of you with a deep love of spreadsheets here is how the Moving Average Convergence Divergence is calculated:

First you plot the difference of a long term EMA (Exponential Moving Average) (26 day is common) from a short term EMA (12 day is common) and this is your MACD.  Then on the same chart you plot an EMA (9 day is common) of the MACD which is called your signal line.

If you don’t feel like doing all that most charting software will do this for you I just like love Excel.

How To Use The MACD?

MACD Chart

One uses the MACD to quickly notice cross overs of the longer term and shorter term EMA, trends in the divergence of the short term and long term EMAs, or recognizing points where the divergence between the two EMA has become so large that it historically shows an overbought or oversold condition.

If you look at the chart from left to right the first note of interest is the zero line crossing.  This notes the point where the short term moving average has just become equal to the long term moving average.  These cross overs indicate a change in direction with momentum just like when we discussed moving average crossovers in a previous post. 

The next note of interest is the downward cross.  This is where the signal line crosses the MACD.  This also indicates a change in stock price direction.  Obviously this can be an upward change in direction also.

The final point is the zero line resistance.  Just like how a long term moving average can be a support and resistance line for the price of the stock, the zero line or where the two moving averages are equal, often provides support and resistance for the MACD preventing the crossover of the to moving average indicators.  This is useful to know because it is often beneficial to wait for the MACD to actually cross the zero line to help reduce the number of times you are whipsawed.

A good trading strategy will use the MACD as one indicator just not the only indicator.  RSIand volume are often used in conjunction with other chart patterns, indicators, and fundamental analysis to help create a higher percentage win trading strategy.

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Today I decided to find out my estimated social security benefits at http://www.ssa.gov/retire2/AnypiaApplet.html.  When you see the number in future value dollars I have to admit it feels pretty comforting.  Social Security does a fantastic job at making you feel…well…secure.

Note:  I currently make a middle class salary, 27 years old, and said I wanted to retire at 62 (which likely won’t be an option for social security by the time I am that age.)

Then I used the choose to save calculator to figure out how much I’d have to save to make 70% of my wage at 62.  For this calculation I assumed 3% inflation, 5% wage growth, 9% investment returns, and 5% investment returns after retirement.  Including my social security benefits I’d have to invest 24% of my income every year.  With that savings rate demand I’d plan on making some passive income on the side in your golden years as most of us aren’t dedicated to saving that much money. 

However, by accident the first time I used the calculator I accidentally put $0 for my social security income.  The required savings rate with no social security was 32%.  So what the calculator is telling me is the government is taking 13% of my income (well 6.5% from me and 6.5% from the company which could have been mine) when it would only take 8% in order to provide the same income at 62.  Now some of you may argue that the social security is risk free when I may have a hard time providing a 10% return.  My concern is with the government’s ability to borrow from the social security pool of money and not enough population to support the baby boomer’s there is significant risk in the system.

Why does social security require a base of people like a pyramid scheme when a simple calculator tells me for less of my income I can provide the income for myself by myself?

I wasn’t a big advocate of the private fund positions, but I honestly can’t support the social security plan anymore either.  Social Security appears to be inefficient with way too much potential for corruption. 

Play The Social Security Game

Since I can’t control if this country has an alternative system to social security or not there is some things you can do to help maximize your returns.

  1. Check Your Earnings – Request a copy of your Personal Earnings and Benefit Estimate Statement (PEBES) annually from the Social Security Administration at www.ssa.gov Report any errors on your earnings immediately as you already paid your fee on those earnings you want to make sure you get your full benefit.
  2. Be Weary of Earnings Limits While Under 70 – If you make too much money after you retire your social security income will be reduced.  If this happens look to reduce some of those earnings through special payment rules which include: payments for work performed before retirement, vacation or sick pay, severance pay, and royalties.  It may even be helpful to plan these special payments to pad your first few years of retirement.
  3. Don’t Lose To The Suspended File - Every year 1.5% of earnings reports end up in the suspended file.  Common causes for this is name changes, agricultural work, names not matching social security card, and add or remove a title from their name.  If you’ve done any of these things report them to the Social Security Office immediately and create a plan to avoid these things in the future.

No matter what you do social security is an important part of your retirement plan and over arching investment strategy including your views of the program’s future.

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Stock Split

What’s worth more to you a peanut butter and jelly sandwich or a peanut butter and jelly sandwich cut in half?  From a pure financial theory standpoint a stock split has absolutely zero impact on the worth of the stock.  If you stock is worth $10 per share and splits into 2 shares worth $5 each absolutely nothing has changed with the company it is just paper pushing.

So why do companies choose to split a stock?  Mainly for psychological reasons such as bringing the face value of the stock down to a “more reasonable level” because certain big round numbers may scare off smaller investors.  The other, and probably more valid reason, is to create more liquidity in their market.   If there is 10 million shares in the float and a company does a 3:1 split there would then be 30 million shares in the float.  Now traders can trade a smaller percentage of the company at any given trade increasing the liquidity and potentially lowering the spread.  These both can be good things for traders and investors, however this doesn’t mean you should invest in a company just because they are having a stock split.  If either the fundamentals or technical indicators are driving the price of a stock down a stock split will do absolutely nothing to change these factors.

One final point to be aware of is the possibility of the reverse split.  In the reverse split a company will increase the value of each share by reducing the number of shares.  A common reverse split will give you 1 share for every 10 shares you own.  A common reason for this is to keep a company out of the penny stock territory.

In general I feel companies that concern themselves with stock splits are spending too much time worrying about the short term market fluctuations and not enough effort actually creating value for their customers to produce profits for their shareholders.  But hey, call me old fashioned.

Forever I’ve been fascinated with the concept of being certified.  (Not that kind of certified!)  I don’t know if it’s the need for recognition, or just the pursuit of knowledge, but I love the concept.  I’m currently considering a few financial related certifications (as well as some not financial ones) and I was wondering if anyone has any experience with these?  My top three choices for a degree currently are:

  1. Chartered Financial Analyst - This one is a monumental task.  A 3 year program involving a wide range of subjects from risk analyst to valuing bonds.  
  2. Certified Financial Planner - This program is designed to teach people how to help others with their personal finances.  It doesn’t appear to be as rigid as the CFA program.
  3. Chartered Market Technicians - I don’t know anyone who has done this certification, but I have interest in this simply because I feel I have the most room for improvement in TA.

If anyone has done any of these or know anyone who has please comment. 

What do you feel about these formal stock market learning programs?