Category: Technical Analysis


If you’ve read any of my other postings you’re probably going “Ha, now he’ll tell us how it’s not possible!” Well, “Ha, it is possible” I haven’t personally done it, but it’s no different than any other way of making money in the markets.  You trade cash for stocks you find more valuable and trade stocks for cash when you find them less valuable.  However, there are some major differences .

What is the Penny Stock Market?

When I speak of penny stocks or penny shares I’m referring to any stock traded outside the major exchanges like the NASDAQ, NYSE, AMEX or other large national exchanges.  Some of these small exchanges often referred to as “over the counter” are pink sheets and OTCBB.  These stocks generally have low, or at least sporadic, volume; their market capitalization is small – often less than $100 million; or  their per share prices is less than $1.

How is Trading in Penny Shares Different than Regular Stocks?

The biggest differences the trader needs to know are:

  • Larger Spread - The bid/ask price on penny stocks tend to be a much larger percentage than on regular stocks. This is due to the low volume and minimum variation between prices. 5 cents of a $10 stock is only 0.5% versus 5% of a $1 stock.
  • More Easily Manipulated – You may have worked a good system out, unfortunately unscrupulous people can more easily manipulated a small cap stock. With low volume a small surge of money can change the price quickly without reason – or even clever marketing schemes.
  • More Volatility – The above reasons create a wilder ride that may make it difficult to find a method that is consistent. It also just may be too emotionally hard to maintain your system.

For the investor the lack of media coverage and government regulation makes it difficult to trust information you come across. Without meaningful information (inside knowledge) I would strongly suggest fundamental investors to stay clear of the penny stock market.

For the trader who still thinks his millions are in the penny stock market I say “Go for it!” However, please spend your time in the trenches learning on regular stocks, options, and commodities first. Feel free to paper trade the pink sheets on the side, but the knowledge you’ll gain from the regular markets first will greatly increase your chance at the 100% per week system! Don’t feel tempted to jump on one of those purchased systems unless you designed it, and definitely don’t take your chances with a random email or forum posting.

The penny stocks are the wild west and I just want you to have your six shooter ready before you venture out.

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Unlike the double top or bottom, flags and pennants are a chart pattern that tell you the direction the stock was heading is going to still be the direction the stock will be heading. 

  1. Both patterns start with a strong volume move.  This creates the flagpole.  If it’s not on higher than average volume than it lowers your chances the pattern will hold true.
  2. Flags form when a short term change of direction occurs on lower volume.  The highs and lows of the new price channel run parallel to each other.
  3. Pennants form when the prices gets locked on low volume with the lows getting higher and the highs getting lower until the two meet.
  4. The price then breaks out on volume again usually with a similar slope to the flagpole.

The psychology is after a big move some people will begin to take profits.  As the true price gets settled out without any real price action the volume slowly dies.  After the volume dies and the price hasn’t fallen hard a new confidence in the original direction is born and the interest moves the low volume stock more easily and the momentum brings in more interest.

 

 

Remember to verify your chart pattern against some other indicator that isn’t related to the pattern you are looking at.  When non correlated indications align you improve your odds of a succesful trade.

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The head and shoulders pattern in a chart is another trade pattern that helps indicate a reversal in a stock’s price.

What you want to see in your head and shoulder pattern is a higher volume on the left shoulder rise and the head rise with lower volume on the right shoulder.  The neckline is the low of the left shoulder connected to the low of the right shoulder.  You also want to verify the low of the right shoulder is lower then the high of the left shoulder.  If this isn’t true it’s often just a pull back before continuing in the same stock price direction. 

Once the price has fallen below the neckline with increasing volume on the down side of the right shoulder the chart pattern is confirmed.  Use your choice of independent verification to verify your price reversal.

There is an inverted head and shoulders chart pattern indicating a change from downward pricing to upward momentum though I find this pattern less reliable in this direction.

Head and Shoulder patterns can also be found in oscillators like your MACD.

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Double Bottom chart patterns are probably one of the easiest to recognize patterns, however most people call any time the price touches near a low twice a double bottom and that’s not exactly what the Double Bottom is.

The price has to touch the same low twice (usually within 3%) with a significant retracement in between.  If the price isn’t exactly the same make sure the price isn’t say 4% lower than the first bottom, lean to the high side for trend reversals.  Staggering lower prices may be a confirmation of a trend continuation.  Also, the two bottoms can not be too close together in time or else it’s just normal volatility.  Unfortunately the exact numbers for retracement and time frame vary from stock equities, commodities, options and within each sector.  So working out these details for your trade option of choice can give you an edge. 

The best test for the double bottom pattern is a price breakout on increased volume after the second bottom higher than the in between retracement.  Huh?  I think I just confused myself, it must be picture time!

There I think that should help clear that up.  The line is the point of the retracement.  If the price moves above this line AFTER the second bottom with a “significant” time frame between the two bottoms you have a very high chance of a price reversal.  I’d say in the 80% range.

It’s good to remember what the chart pattern actually represents – people making trades.  As a price gets lower some generally people think it’s worth less that’s what makes the price go down.  At some point a group of people will now think the stock is a deal and buy in.  Some of those people will sell on the retracement or “take profits” and the sellers who wish they had sold earlier will use that as an opportunity to sell again.  When the price reverses again at the same point it indicates to the market there is a reason why the entity being traded is worth buying at the point and a trend reversal can begin.

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